The Limits Of Predictability

[Ext User(BONZ0)]

Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post
Published: Friday, February 02, 2007
January 19, 2007

"We only understand 10% of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy with Kyoto-like measures." Henk
Tennekes, Research Director, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Chairman Scientific Advisory Committee of the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=9bc9a7c6-2729-4d07-9629-807f1dee479f&k=0

When Frans Nieuwstadt, a distinguished Dutch meteorologist, engineer, editor and professor, died in 2005, his obituary recounted
seminal events in his accomplished life. Among the experiences worthy of mention: Nieuwstadt had studied under the celebrated
professor, Henk Tennekes, and along with other colleagues had been instrumental in convincing Tennekes to return to Europe in 1978
to become director of research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and later chairman of the august Scientific
Advisory Committee of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Henk Tennekes, in ways both personal and professional, has touched an extraordinary number of lives in his own distinguished career,
among academics and laymen alike. He is loved for his popular 1997 book, The Simple Science of Flight From Insects to Jumbo Jets,
and for his scholarly 1972 work, A First Course in Turbulence, a classic that logs more than 2,000 citations on Google Scholar. His
provocative 1986 speech, "No Forecast Is Complete Without A Forecast of Forecast Skill," led to the now-common discipline of
"ensemble forecasting" and spurred "multi-model forecasting." Scientists today continue to wrestle with the fundamental critiques
that he first presented.

Tennekes became more than an inspiration for his students and a model for other scientists, however. He also became an object lesson
in the limits of scientific inquiry. Because his critiques of climate science ran afoul of the orthodoxy required by the Royal
Netherlands Meteorological Institute, he was forced to leave. Lesser scientists, seeing that even a man of Tennekes's reputation was
not free to voice dissent, learned their lesson. Ever since, most scientists who harbour doubts about climate science bite their
tongues and keep their heads down.

Tennekes, more than any other individual, challenged the models that climate scientists were constructing, saying models could never
replicate the complexity of the real world. What was needed was a different approach to science, one that recognized inherent limits
in such scientific tools and aimed less to regulate the environment.

In a landmark speech to the American Meteorological Society in 1986, he argued that meteorology was poised to be the first of the
post- Newtonian sciences because it was "at odds with the mainstream of the scientific enterprise of the last 300 years. One goal of
science is to control nature, but we know we cannot control the weather. The goal of science is prediction, but we stand in front of
the limits of predictability."

Meteorology, in other words, would be the first scientific discipline to hit this brick wall. As Tennekes argued, modern theory
"unequivocally predicts that no amount of improvement in the quality of the observation network or in the power of computers will
improve the average useful forecast range by more than a few days."

Since Tennekes' speech, a host of scientists have sought to extend the bounds of modelling. They have seen success, but only on the
scale Tennekes predicted.

In a paper presented in 2003, a team of European scientists detailed advances in modelling science. "Since the day, almost 20 years
ago, in which Henk Tennekes stated . that 'no forecast is complete without a forecast of the forecast skill,' the demand for
numerical forecasting tools ... has been ever increasing," they said, explaining efforts to make modelling reliable beyond a three-
to four-day period. Thanks to the intense efforts of a new generation of climate modellers, modelling capability has advanced in
some instances by 12 to 36 hours, in others by several days. To extend the bounds further, the paper announced a major new research
initiative, designed to bring the forecasting discipline to the 120-hour range.

Climate modelling is the basis of forecasts of climate change. Yet this modelling, Tennekes believes, has little utility, and "there
is no chance at all that the physical sciences can produce a universally accepted scientific basis for policy measures concerning
climate change." Moreover, he states: "There exists no sound theoretical framework for climate predictability studies."

Not surprisingly, Tennekes abhors the dogma that he feels characterizes the climate-change establishment, and the untoward role of
climate science in public-policy making. "We only understand 10% of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy
with Kyoto-like measures."

Lawrence Solomon@nextcity.com

Regards

B0NZ0

"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
degree panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences

"Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
UK

[Ext User(BONZ0)]

Thanks to the intense efforts of a new generation of climate modellers, modelling capability has advanced in
some instances by 12 to 36 hours, in others by several days. To extend the bounds further, the paper announced a major new research
initiative, designed to bring the forecasting discipline to the 120-hour range.

Climate modelling is the basis of forecasts of climate change. Yet this modelling, Tennekes believes, has little utility, and "there
is no chance at all that the physical sciences can produce a universally accepted scientific basis for policy measures concerning
climate change." Moreover, he states: "There exists no sound theoretical framework for climate predictability studies."

Regards

B0NZ0

"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
degree panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences

"Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
UK
"BONZ0" <bonz00@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message news:46149549@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
> Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post
> Published: Friday, February 02, 2007
> January 19, 2007
>
> "We only understand 10% of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy with Kyoto-like measures." Henk
> Tennekes, Research Director, The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Chairman Scientific Advisory Committee of the
> European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
>
> http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=9bc9a7c6-2729-4d07-9629-807f1dee479f&k=0
>
> When Frans Nieuwstadt, a distinguished Dutch meteorologist, engineer, editor and professor, died in 2005, his obituary recounted
> seminal events in his accomplished life. Among the experiences worthy of mention: Nieuwstadt had studied under the celebrated
> professor, Henk Tennekes, and along with other colleagues had been instrumental in convincing Tennekes to return to Europe in 1978
> to become director of research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and later chairman of the august Scientific
> Advisory Committee of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
>
> Henk Tennekes, in ways both personal and professional, has touched an extraordinary number of lives in his own distinguished
> career, among academics and laymen alike. He is loved for his popular 1997 book, The Simple Science of Flight From Insects to
> Jumbo Jets, and for his scholarly 1972 work, A First Course in Turbulence, a classic that logs more than 2,000 citations on Google
> Scholar. His provocative 1986 speech, "No Forecast Is Complete Without A Forecast of Forecast Skill," led to the now-common
> discipline of "ensemble forecasting" and spurred "multi-model forecasting." Scientists today continue to wrestle with the
> fundamental critiques that he first presented.
>
> Tennekes became more than an inspiration for his students and a model for other scientists, however. He also became an object
> lesson in the limits of scientific inquiry. Because his critiques of climate science ran afoul of the orthodoxy required by the
> Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, he was forced to leave. Lesser scientists, seeing that even a man of Tennekes's
> reputation was not free to voice dissent, learned their lesson. Ever since, most scientists who harbour doubts about climate
> science bite their tongues and keep their heads down.
>
> Tennekes, more than any other individual, challenged the models that climate scientists were constructing, saying models could
> never replicate the complexity of the real world. What was needed was a different approach to science, one that recognized
> inherent limits in such scientific tools and aimed less to regulate the environment.
>
> In a landmark speech to the American Meteorological Society in 1986, he argued that meteorology was poised to be the first of the
> post- Newtonian sciences because it was "at odds with the mainstream of the scientific enterprise of the last 300 years. One goal
> of science is to control nature, but we know we cannot control the weather. The goal of science is prediction, but we stand in
> front of the limits of predictability."
>
> Meteorology, in other words, would be the first scientific discipline to hit this brick wall. As Tennekes argued, modern theory
> "unequivocally predicts that no amount of improvement in the quality of the observation network or in the power of computers will
> improve the average useful forecast range by more than a few days."
>
> Since Tennekes' speech, a host of scientists have sought to extend the bounds of modelling. They have seen success, but only on
> the scale Tennekes predicted.
>
> In a paper presented in 2003, a team of European scientists detailed advances in modelling science. "Since the day, almost 20
> years ago, in which Henk Tennekes stated . that 'no forecast is complete without a forecast of the forecast skill,' the demand for
> numerical forecasting tools ... has been ever increasing," they said, explaining efforts to make modelling reliable beyond a
> three- to four-day period. Thanks to the intense efforts of a new generation of climate modellers, modelling capability has
> advanced in some instances by 12 to 36 hours, in others by several days. To extend the bounds further, the paper announced a major
> new research initiative, designed to bring the forecasting discipline to the 120-hour range.
>
> Climate modelling is the basis of forecasts of climate change. Yet this modelling, Tennekes believes, has little utility, and
> "there
> is no chance at all that the physical sciences can produce a universally accepted scientific basis for policy measures concerning
> climate change." Moreover, he states: "There exists no sound theoretical framework for climate predictability studies."
>
> Not surprisingly, Tennekes abhors the dogma that he feels characterizes the climate-change establishment, and the untoward role of
> climate science in public-policy making. "We only understand 10% of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world
> economy with Kyoto-like measures."
>
> Lawrence Solomon@nextcity.com
>
> Regards
>
> B0NZ0
>
> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
> degree panic us"
> Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences
>
> "Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
> what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met
> Office UK
>

[Ext User(Steve B.)]

BONZ0 said:

> "Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure
> of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
> what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are
> not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
> UK

Here:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39577

the attribution is "David Bellamy, president of the London-based
Conservation Foundation."

At least _somebody_ said it.

Steve = : ^ )

[Ext User(kangarooistan)]

Kan. team helps study sea level changes
Staff and agencies
05 April, 2007

Wed Apr 4, 7:24 PM ET


Kan. - In a cramped laboratory, graduate student Nazia Ahmed tinkers
with a radar system that will soon withstand some of the harshest
conditions on Earth. Across campus, Richard Hale is putting the final
touches on a model of an unmanned aerial vehicle that will eventually
carry Ahmed's contraption over the polar ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica.


"Even half a meter to 1 meter of sea level rise is a serious issue,"
said Prasad Gogineni, a professor of electrical engineering and
computer science and director of CReSIS


.. "The question right now is not whether the sea level is rising,
it's
a question of how fast and how much."


Last year, researchers discovered Antarctica's ice sheet has been
losing 36 cubic miles - or more than 5 trillion cubic feet - of ice
each year since early 2002.


NASA scientists say the total ice volume in Greenland is also
diminishing, which could have dire consequences for the 4 million
people who live in the world's polar regions.


Some scientists predict the ice sheets will disappear entirely by the
end of this century, a point driven home in former presidential
candidate Al Gore 's Oscar-winning documentary, "An Inconvenient
Truth." A portion of the film illustrates what major coastal cities
such as New York and Beijing would look like if the Greenland ice
sheet melts and sea levels rise.


CReSIS wants to find out.


To do that, CReSIS is developing new radars and sophisticated sensors
that can more accurately examine the polar ice sheets. Those radars
will be carried on experimental, long-duration unmanned aerial
vehicles and surface-based rovers that can withstand the brutal
terrain and harsh conditions of the arctics.


CReSIS is a multidisciplinary effort, encompassing researchers from
all areas of academia and several universities.


Researchers from Penn State, the University of Maine, Elizabeth City
State University, Haskell Indian Nations University and the Byrd
Polar
Research Center at Ohio State University are also working on the
project. So are scientists in Denmark, Australia and England.


The CReSIS project is funded by a $19 million grant in 2005 from the
National Science Foundation , with additional support from NASA. It's
one of three projects the United States is contributing to a two-year
study dubbed the International Polar Year.


The Polar Year, sponsored by the United Nation's World Meteorological
Organization and the International Council for Science, began March 1
and includes nearly 50,000 scientists from 63 nations. More than 220
expeditions have been planned over the next two years, and various
national exploration agencies have promised about $1.5 billion in
funding.


CReSIS plans two expeditions, one to map Greenland next year and the
other to examine Antarctica in late 2008 and early 2009.


Gogineni said the expeditionary teams will include about 20 people,
more than half of them students.


"One of the purposes of the center is to train the next generation of
scientists and engineers," Gogineni said. "We realize the importance
of developing that."


___


On the Net:


Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets: http://www.cresis.ku.edu


International Polar Year: http://www.ipy.org/

[Ext User(BONZ0)]

Friday, 3 January, 2003, 16:18 GMT

Antarctica's Ice Sheet Melting Naturally



The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and releasing water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.

Research published in the journal Science suggests that the last Ice Age never really ended in that part of the world.



If the melting continues at its current rate then the WAIS could disappear in 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea levels by
five metres.



However, scientists warn that a sudden rapid melting of the WAIS could cause serious problems for some coastal regions.



Rock climbing

Geologists measured the chemical composition of rocks collected on seven mountains in the Ford Ranges near the Ross Sea.



Some of the peaks are almost a mile high (1.6 kilometres), but were completely covered in ice 10,000 years ago.



As the ice began to melt away and the glaciers retreated, rocks where left behind on the freshly uncovered mountains.



The rocks were exposed to cosmic rays from deep space and so their chemical make-up changed.



By looking at the composition of the rocks, the geologists could calculate how old they were and therefore when the ice melted.



Ice Age



Professor John Stone from the University of Washington, US, led the teams behind the work.



He said: "In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations of age with altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the
ice sheet coming down the mountain sides with this approach."



Antarctica's Ice Age may not be over

The most surprising finding though is how recently the ice has thinned in West Antarctica.



Ice sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000 years ago, but this process had only just started in West
Antarctica at that time.



"The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world," Professor Stone said.



The WAIS, which covers an area of 360,000 square miles (580,000 km), is currently melting at a slow and steady rate and if this
continues it will disappear in another 7,000 years.



Professor Stone says this would raise the global sea levels by about five metres.



But he warns: "A rapid melting event that released even a small fraction of this amount could have disastrous consequences for
coastal regions."

The scientists stress this melting of the WAIS is a natural process but they cannot rule out that global warming may now be playing
a part.

As much of the ice sheet is below water, the WAIS could be very sensitive to the warming of the oceans.

Regards

B0NZ0

"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
degree panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences

"Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
UK

[Ext User(sherkd@hotmail.com)]

On Apr 5, 4:59 pm, "BONZ0" <bon...@optusnt.com.au> wrote:
> Friday, 3 January, 2003, 16:18 GMT
>
> Antarctica's Ice Sheet Melting Naturally
>
> The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and releasing water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.
>
> Research published in the journal Science suggests that the last Ice Age never really ended in that part of the world.
>
> If the melting continues at its current rate then the WAIS could disappear in 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea levels by
> five metres.
>
> However, scientists warn that a sudden rapid melting of the WAIS could cause serious problems for some coastal regions.
>
> Rock climbing
>
> Geologists measured the chemical composition of rocks collected on seven mountains in the Ford Ranges near the Ross Sea.
>
> Some of the peaks are almost a mile high (1.6 kilometres), but were completely covered in ice 10,000 years ago.
>
> As the ice began to melt away and the glaciers retreated, rocks where left behind on the freshly uncovered mountains.
>
> The rocks were exposed to cosmic rays from deep space and so their chemical make-up changed.
>
> By looking at the composition of the rocks, the geologists could calculate how old they were and therefore when the ice melted.
>
> Ice Age
>
> Professor John Stone from the University of Washington, US, led the teams behind the work.
>
> He said: "In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations of age with altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the
> ice sheet coming down the mountain sides with this approach."
>
> Antarctica's Ice Age may not be over
>
> The most surprising finding though is how recently the ice has thinned in West Antarctica.
>
> Ice sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000 years ago, but this process had only just started in West
> Antarctica at that time.
>
> "The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world," Professor Stone said.
>
> The WAIS, which covers an area of 360,000 square miles (580,000 km), is currently melting at a slow and steady rate and if this
> continues it will disappear in another 7,000 years.
>
> Professor Stone says this would raise the global sea levels by about five metres.
>
> But he warns: "A rapid melting event that released even a small fraction of this amount could have disastrous consequences for
> coastal regions."
>
> The scientists stress this melting of the WAIS is a natural process but they cannot rule out that global warming may now be playing
> a part.
>
> As much of the ice sheet is below water, the WAIS could be very sensitive to the warming of the oceans.
>
> Regards
>
> B0NZ0
>
> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
> degree panic us"
> Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences
>
> "Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
> what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
> UK


So, the message is, let us see: global warming and climate change is
nothing but a big fat conspiracy to drive us out of seaside residences
and to stop us from using fossil fuel etc. Care to explain, why?

[Ext User(Steve B.)]

sherkd@hotmail.com said:

> On Apr 5, 4:59 pm, "BONZ0" <bon...@optusnt.com.au> wrote:
>> Friday, 3 January, 2003, 16:18 GMT
>>
>> Antarctica's Ice Sheet Melting Naturally
>>
>> The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and releasing
>> water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.
>>
>> Research published in the journal Science suggests that the last Ice Age
>> never really ended in that part of the world.
>>
>> If the melting continues at its current rate then the WAIS could disappear in
>> 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea levels by
>> five metres.
>>
>> However, scientists warn that a sudden rapid melting of the WAIS could cause
>> serious problems for some coastal regions.
>>
>> Rock climbing
>>
>> Geologists measured the chemical composition of rocks collected on seven
>> mountains in the Ford Ranges near the Ross Sea.
>>
>> Some of the peaks are almost a mile high (1.6 kilometres), but were
>> completely covered in ice 10,000 years ago.
>>
>> As the ice began to melt away and the glaciers retreated, rocks where left
>> behind on the freshly uncovered mountains.
>>
>> The rocks were exposed to cosmic rays from deep space and so their chemical
>> make-up changed.
>>
>> By looking at the composition of the rocks, the geologists could calculate
>> how old they were and therefore when the ice melted.
>>
>> Ice Age
>>
>> Professor John Stone from the University of Washington, US, led the teams
>> behind the work.
>>
>> He said: "In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations of age with
>> altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the
>> ice sheet coming down the mountain sides with this approach."
>>
>> Antarctica's Ice Age may not be over
>>
>> The most surprising finding though is how recently the ice has thinned in
>> West Antarctica.
>>
>> Ice sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000 years
>> ago, but this process had only just started in West
>> Antarctica at that time.
>>
>> "The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world,"
>> Professor Stone said.
>>
>> The WAIS, which covers an area of 360,000 square miles (580,000 km), is
>> currently melting at a slow and steady rate and if this
>> continues it will disappear in another 7,000 years.
>>
>> Professor Stone says this would raise the global sea levels by about five
>> metres.
>>
>> But he warns: "A rapid melting event that released even a small fraction of
>> this amount could have disastrous consequences for
>> coastal regions."
>>
>> The scientists stress this melting of the WAIS is a natural process but they
>> cannot rule out that global warming may now be playing
>> a part.
>>
>> As much of the ice sheet is below water, the WAIS could be very sensitive to
>> the warming of the oceans.
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> B0NZ0
>>
>> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything
>> except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
>> degree panic us"
>> Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National
>> Academy of Sciences
>>
>> "Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure
>> of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
>> what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are
>> not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
>> UK
>
>
> So, the message is, let us see: global warming and climate change is
> nothing but a big fat conspiracy to drive us out of seaside residences
> and to stop us from using fossil fuel etc. Care to explain, why?

People are gullible. Drama sells. The media would go broke reporting the
truth of this matter.

Steve = : ^ )

Please watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XttV2C6B8pU

[Ext User(jonz)]

"Steve B." <pretty_good@every.thing> wrote in message
news:C23AF2AE.8BFC9%pretty_good@every.thing...
> sherkd@hotmail.com said:
>
> > On Apr 5, 4:59 pm, "BONZ0" <bon...@optusnt.com.au> wrote:
> >> Friday, 3 January, 2003, 16:18 GMT
> >>
> >> Antarctica's Ice Sheet Melting Naturally
> >>
> >> The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been melting naturally and
releasing
> >> water to the ocean for the last 10,000 years.
> >>
> >> Research published in the journal Science suggests that the last Ice
Age
> >> never really ended in that part of the world.


geez........no shit sherlock ???

---ooo---

> >>
> >> If the melting continues at its current rate then the WAIS could
disappear in
> >> 7,000 years, possibly raising worldwide sea levels by
> >> five metres.
> >>
> >> However, scientists warn that a sudden rapid melting of the WAIS could
cause
> >> serious problems for some coastal regions.
> >>
> >> Rock climbing
> >>
> >> Geologists measured the chemical composition of rocks collected on
seven
> >> mountains in the Ford Ranges near the Ross Sea.
> >>
> >> Some of the peaks are almost a mile high (1.6 kilometres), but were
> >> completely covered in ice 10,000 years ago.
> >>
> >> As the ice began to melt away and the glaciers retreated, rocks where
left
> >> behind on the freshly uncovered mountains.
> >>
> >> The rocks were exposed to cosmic rays from deep space and so their
chemical
> >> make-up changed.
> >>
> >> By looking at the composition of the rocks, the geologists could
calculate
> >> how old they were and therefore when the ice melted.
> >>
> >> Ice Age
> >>
> >> Professor John Stone from the University of Washington, US, led the
teams
> >> behind the work.
> >>
> >> He said: "In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations of
age with
> >> altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the
> >> ice sheet coming down the mountain sides with this approach."
> >>
> >> Antarctica's Ice Age may not be over
> >>
> >> The most surprising finding though is how recently the ice has thinned
in
> >> West Antarctica.
> >>
> >> Ice sheets in North America and Europe had nearly all melted 10,000
years
> >> ago, but this process had only just started in West
> >> Antarctica at that time.
> >>
> >> "The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world,"
> >> Professor Stone said.
> >>
> >> The WAIS, which covers an area of 360,000 square miles (580,000 km), is
> >> currently melting at a slow and steady rate and if this
> >> continues it will disappear in another 7,000 years.
> >>
> >> Professor Stone says this would raise the global sea levels by about
five
> >> metres.
> >>
> >> But he warns: "A rapid melting event that released even a small
fraction of
> >> this amount could have disastrous consequences for
> >> coastal regions."
> >>
> >> The scientists stress this melting of the WAIS is a natural process
but they
> >> cannot rule out that global warming may now be playing
> >> a part.
> >>
> >> As much of the ice sheet is below water, the WAIS could be very
sensitive to
> >> the warming of the oceans.
> >>
> >> Regards
> >>
> >> B0NZ0
> >>
> >> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything
> >> except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
> >> degree panic us"
> >> Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the
National
> >> Academy of Sciences
> >>
> >> "Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am
sure
> >> of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
> >> what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and
policy-makers are
> >> not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
> >> UK
> >
> >
> > So, the message is, let us see: global warming and climate change is
> > nothing but a big fat conspiracy to drive us out of seaside residences
> > and to stop us from using fossil fuel etc. Care to explain, why?
>
> People are gullible. Drama sells. The media would go broke reporting the
> truth of this matter.
>
> Steve = : ^ )
>
> Please watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XttV2C6B8pU
>

[Ext User(Stan)]

"Steve B." <pretty_good@every.thing> wrote in message
news:C23AF2AE.8BFC9%pretty_good@every.thing...
(snipped)
> People are gullible. Drama sells. The media would go broke reporting the
> truth of this matter.
>
> Steve = : ^ )

That, and the periodic manias that affect societies. No-one knows the
cause for sure but history testifies to their existence. Self-flagellation
during the plagues; Tulip mania; South Sea Bubble; the French currency
mania started by a Scotsman; The Salem Witch Trials.

Obsessions start and play out and then just disappear. Its a form of
religious experience...an idea, then obsession. It becomes catching during
times of anxiety. The dangerous obsessions, ones like the Inquisition
lasted hundreds of years.

All forms of belief have this characteristic of obsession. The mind fails
to move on. And yes, the media find the obsession a convenient area of
conflict to retain eyeballs and therefore income. They will soon generate a
new obsession when this one wears out with public boredom.

Just as a thought, it could also be a Wag The Dog connivance...to take the
public mind along one path in a scheme to hide something more devastating
about to occur. Check how many aircraft carriers are in the Gulf for
instance. Churchill started a diversionary story to catch the mind of the
public so it seeped through to Germany...it worked.

[Ext User(BONZ0)]

<sherkd@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:1175759582.614565.61230@w1g2000hsg.googlegrou ps.com...
> So, the message is, let us see: global warming and climate change is
> nothing but a big fat conspiracy to drive us out of seaside residences
> and to stop us from using fossil fuel etc. Care to explain, why?



.... a full-fledged debate over global warming would undermine their agenda.

And what is that agenda?

Two international leaders have said it best. Margot Wallstrom, the EU's
Environment Commisioner states that Kyoto is "about levelling the playing
field for big businesses worldwide." French President Jacques Chirac said
during a speech at the Hague in November 2000 that represents "the first
component of authentic global governance

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Speeches&ContentRecord_id=9240f997-8da3-4384-867d-21e19c0fda9e&Region_id=&Issue_id=

************************************************** ************************************************** ***************************
Also, here are some interesting quotes

"No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits...climate change provides the greatest chance to
bring about justice and equality in the world" Christine Stewart, former Canadian Environment Minister

"Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen" Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC

"Whether you believe the science [of global warming] or not is beside the point. Policy should be more about risk than proof." Jon
Anda Morgan Stanley Vice Chairman

"If the global warming virago collapses, there will be an awful lot of people out of jobs." Philip Stott Biogeographer University of
London

"We have a vested interest in creating panic because money will then flow to climate scientists." John Christy IPCC contributor

"So, we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might
have." Professor Stephen Schneider, global warming guru at Stanford University

"We have to get rid of the Mediaeval Warm Period" Confided to geophysicist David Deming by the IPCC (1995)

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and
hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series
of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." H. L Mencken

"Fewer scientific problems are so often discussed, yet so rarely decided by proofs, as whether climatic relations have changed over
time." Joachim von Schouw, 1826.

"Skepticism is the first step toward truth" Denis Diderot philosopher

"Global warming "a lovely hypothesis destroyed by an ugly fact." Thomas Henry Huxley

"The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to
rule it". H. L. Mencken

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong".
H. L. Mencken

"Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it."
Andre Gide, Nobel Prize winning novelist

"Remember, all men would be tyrants if they could."
Daniel Defoe


Regards

B0NZ0

"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
degree panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences

"Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not." Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
UK

[Ext User(BONZ0)]

"Stan" <ecreipt@bigpond.net.au> wrote in message news:lP4Rh.9685$M.9293@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>
> "Steve B." <pretty_good@every.thing> wrote in message news:C23AF2AE.8BFC9%pretty_good@every.thing...
> (snipped)
>> People are gullible. Drama sells. The media would go broke reporting the
>> truth of this matter.
>>
>> Steve = : ^ )
>
> That, and the periodic manias that affect societies. No-one knows the cause for sure

It's the sun. The sun has driven past ice ages and warmings. This one is no different.

VIZ: We have no control over climate. The best we can do is adapt to any changes.

Cosmic Rays and Climate

By: Nir J. Shaviv



http://www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate

Article originally appeared in PhysicaPlus.



Sir William Herschel was the first to seriously consider the sun as a source of climate variations, already two centuries ago. He
noted a correlation between the price of wheat, which he presumed to be a climate proxy, and the sunspot activity:



“The result of this review of the foregoing five periods is, that, from the price of wheat, it seems probable that some temporary
scarcity or defect of vegetation has generally taken place, when the sun has been without those appearances which we surmise to be
symptoms of a copious emission of light and heat.”

— Sir William Herschel, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 91, 265 (1801)



Herschel presumed that this link arises from variation in the luminosity of the sun. Today, various solar activity and climate
variations are indeed known to have a notable correlation on various time scales. The best example is perhaps the one depicted in
fig. 1, on a centennial to millennial time scale between solar activity and the tropical climate of the Indian ocean (Neff et al.
2001). Another example of a beautiful correlation exists on a somewhat longer time scale, between solar activity and the northern
atlantic climate (Bond et al. 2001). Nevertheless, the relatively small luminosity variations of the sun are most likely
insufficient to explain this or other links. Thus, an amplifier of solar activity is probably required to explain these observed
correlations.



Figure 1: The correlation between solar activity—as mirrored in the 14C flux, and a climate sensitivity variable, the 18O/16O
isotope ratio from stalagmites in a cave in Oman, on a centennial to millennial time scale. The 14C is reconstructed from tree
rings. It is a proxy of solar activity since a more active sun has a stronger solar wind which reduces the flux of cosmic rays
reaching Earth from outside the solar system. A reduced cosmic ray flux, will in turn reduce the spallation of nitrogen and oxygen
and with it the formation of 14C. On the other hand, 18O/16O reflects the temperature of the Indian ocean—the source of the water
that formed the stalagmites. (Graph from Neff et al., 2001, Copywrite by Nature, used with permission)



Several amplifiers were suggested. For example, UV radiation is all absorbed in the stratosphere, such that notable stratospheric
changes arise with changes to the non-thermal radiation emitted by the sun. In fact, Joanna Heigh of Imperial College in London,
suggested that through dynamic coupling with the troposphere, via the Hadley circulation (in which moist air ascends in the tropic
and descends as dry air at a latitude of about 30°) the solar signal at the surface can be amplified. Here we are interested in what
appears to be a much more indirect link between solar activity and climate.



In 1959, the late Edward Ney of the U. of Minnesota suggested that any climatic sensitivity to the density of tropospheric ions
would immediately link solar activity to climate. This is because the solar wind modulates the flux of high energy particles coming
from outside the solar system. These particles, the cosmic rays, are the dominant source of ionization in the troposphere. More
specifically, a more active sun accelerates a stronger solar wind, which in turn implies that as cosmic rays diffuse from the
outskirts of the solar system to its center, they lose more energy. Consequently, a lower tropospheric ionization rate results. Over
the 11-yr solar cycle and the long term variations in solar activity, these variations correspond to typically a 10% change in this
ionization rate. It now appears that there is a climatic variable sensitive to the amount of tropospheric ionization—Clouds.



Figure 2: The cosmic ray link between solar activity and the terrestrial climate. The changing solar activity is responsible for a
varying solar wind strength. A stronger wind will reduce the flux of cosmic ray reaching Earth, since a larger amount of energy is
lost as they propagate up the solar wind. The cosmic rays themselves come from outside the solar system (cosmic rays with energies
below the "knee" at 1015eV, are most likely accelerated by supernova remnants). Since cosmic rays dominate the tropospheric
ionization, an increased solar activity will translate into a reduced ionization, and empirically (as shown below), also to a
reduced low altitude cloud cover. Since low altitude clouds have a net cooling effect (their "whiteness" is more important than
their "blanket" effect), increased solar activity implies a warmer climate. Intrinsic cosmic ray flux variations will have a similar
effect, one however, which is unrelated to solar activity variations.



Clouds have been observed from space since the beginning of the 1980's. By the mid 1990's, enough cloud data accumulated to provide
empirical evidence for a solar/cloud-cover link. Without the satellite data, it hard or probably impossible to get statistically
meaningful results because of the large systematic errors plaguing ground based observations. Using the satellite data, Henrik
Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen has shown that cloud cover varies in sync with the variable cosmic ray
flux reaching the Earth. Over the relevant time scale, the largest variations arise from the 11-yr solar cycle, and indeed, this
cloud cover seemed to follow the cycle and a half of cosmic ray flux modulation. Later, Henrik Svensmark and his colleague Nigel
Marsh, have shown that the correlation is primarily with low altitude cloud cover. This can be seen in fig. 3.



Figure 3: The correlation between cosmic ray flux (orange) as measured in Neutron count monitors in low magnetic latitudes, and the
low altitude cloud cover (blue) using ISCCP satellite data set, following Marsh & Svensmark, 2003.



The solar-activity – cosmic-ray-flux – cloud-cover correlation is quite apparent. It was in fact sought for by Henrik Svensmrk,
based on theoretical considerations. However, by itself it cannot be used to prove the cosmic ray climate connection. The reason is
that we cannot exclude the possibility that solar activity modulates the cosmic ray flux and independently climate, without any
casual link between the latter two. There is however separate proof that a casual link exists between cosmic rays and climate, and
independently that cosmic rays left a fingerprint in the observed cloud cover variations.



To begin with, climate variations appear to arise also from intrinsic cosmic ray flux variations, namely, from variations that have
nothing to do with solar activity modulations. This removes any doubt that the observed solar activity cloud cover correlations are
coincidental or without an actual causal connection. That is to say, it removes the possibility that solar activity modulates the
cosmic ray flux and independently the climate, such that we think that the cosmic rays and climate are related, where in fact they
are not. Specifically, cosmic ray flux variations also arise from the varying environment around the solar system, as it journeys
around the Milky Way. These variations appear to have left a paleoclimatic imprint in the geological records.



Cosmic Rays, at least at energies lower than 1015eV, are accelerated by supernova remnants. In our galaxy, most supernovae are the
result of the death of massive stars. In spiral galaxies like our own, most of the star formation takes place in the spiral arms.
These are waves which revolve around the galaxy at a speed different than the stars. Each time the wave passes (or is passed
through), interstellar gas is shocked and forms new stars. Massive stars that end their lives with a supernova explosion, live a
relatively short life of at most 30 million years, thus, they die not far form the spiral arms where they were born. As a
consequence, most cosmic rays are accelerated in the vicinity of spiral arms. The solar system, however, has a much longer life span
such that it periodically crosses the spiral arms of the Milky Way. Each time it does so, it should witness an elevated level of
cosmic rays. In fact, the cosmic ray flux variations arising from our galactic journey are ten times larger than the cosmic ray flux
variations due to solar activity modulations, at the energies responsible for the tropospheric ionization (of order 10 GeV). If the
latter is responsible for a 1°K effect, spiral arm passages should be responsible for a 10°K effect—more than enough to change the
state of earth from a hothouse, with temperate climates extending to the polar regions, to an icehouse, with ice-caps on its poles,
as Earth is today. In fact, it is expected to be the most dominant climate driver on the 108 to 109 yr time scale.



It was shown by the author (Shaviv 2002, 2003), that these intrinsic variation in the cosmic ray flux are clearly evident in the
geological paleoclimate data. To within the determinations of the period and phase of the spiral-arm climate connection, the
astronomical determinations of the relative velocity agree with the geological sedimentation record for when Earth was in a hothouse
or icehouse conditions. Moreover, it was found that the cosmic ray flux can be independently reconstructed using the so called
"exposure ages" of Iron meteorites. The signal, was found to agree with the astronomical predictions on one hand, and correlate well
with the sedimentation record, all having a ~145 Myr period.



Figure 4: An Iron meteorite. A large sample of these meteorites can be used to reconstruct the past cosmic ray flux variations. The
reconstructed signal reveals a 145 Myr periodicity. The one in the picture is part of the Sikhote Alin meteorite that fell over
Siberia in the middle of the 20th century. The cosmic-ray exposure age of the meteorite implies that it broke off its parent body
about 300 Million years ago.



In a later analysis, with Ján Veizer of the University of Ottawa and the Ruhr University of Bochum, it was found that the cosmic ray
flux reconstruction agrees with a quantitative reconstruction of the tropical temperature (Shaviv & Veizer, 2003). In fact, the
correlation is so well, it was shown that cosmic ray flux variations explain about two thirds of the variance in the reconstructed
temperature signal. Thus, cosmic rays undoubtedly affect climate, and on geological time scales are the most dominant climate
driver.



Figure 5: Correlation between the cosmic ray flux reconstruction (based on the exposure ages of Iron meteorites) and the
geochemically reconstructed tropical temperature. The comparison between the two reconstructions reveals the dominant role of cosmic
rays and the galactic "geography" as a climate driver over geological time scales. (Shaviv & Vezier 2003)



Figure 6: A summary of the 4 different signals revealing the cosmic ray flux climate link over geological time scales. Plotted are
the period and phase (of expected peak coldness) of two extraterrestrial signals (astronomical determinations of the spiral arm
pattern speed and cosmic ray flux reconstruction using Iron meteorites) and two paleoclimate reconstruction (based on sedimentation
and geochemical records). All four signals are consistent with each other, demonstrating the robustness of the link. If any data set
is excluded, a link should still exist.



Recently, it was also shown by Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Nigel Marsh of the Danish Space Research Center and their
colleagues, that the variations in the amount of low altitude cloud cover follow the expectations from a cosmic-ray/cloud cover link
(Usoskin et al., 2004). Specifically, it was found that the relative change in the low altitude cloud cover is proportional to the
relative change in the solar-cycle induced atmospheric ionization at the given geomagnetic latitudes and at the altitude of low
clouds (up to about 3 kms). Namely, at higher latitudes were the the ionization variations are about twice as large as those of low
latitudes, the low altitude cloud variations are roughly twice as large as well.



Thus, it now appears that empirical evidence for a cosmic-ray/cloud-cover link is abundant. However, is there a physical mechanism
to explain it? The answer is that although there are indications for how the link may arise, no firm scenario, at least one which is
based on solid experimental results, is yet present.



Although above 100% saturation, the preferred phase of water is liquid, it will not be able to condense unless it has a surface to
do so on. Thus, to form cloud droplets the air must have cloud condensation nuclei—small dust particles or aerosols upon which the
water can condense. By changing the number density of these particles, the properties of the clouds can be varied, with more cloud
condensation nuclei, the cloud droplets are more numerous but smaller, this tends to make whiter and longer living clouds. This
effect was seen down stream of smoke stacks, down stream of cities, and in the oceans in the form of ship tracks in the marine cloud
layer.



The suggested hypothesis, is that in regions devoid of dust (e.g., over the large ocean basins), the formation of cloud condensation
nuclei takes place from the growth of small aerosol clusters, and that the formation of the latter is governed by the availability
of charge, such that charged aerosol clusters are more stable and can grow while neutral clusters can more easily break apart.
Several experimental results tend to support this hypothesis, but not yet prove it. For example, the group of Frank Arnold at the
university of Heidelberg collected air in airborne missions and found that, as expected, charge clusters play an important role in
the formation of small condensation nuclei. It is yet to be seen that the small condensation nuclei grow through accretion and not
through scavenging by larger objects. If the former process is dominant, charge and therefore cosmic ray ionization would play an
important role in the formation of cloud condensation nuclei.



One of the promising prospects for proving the "missing link", is the SKY experiment being conducted in the Danish National Space
Center, where a real "cloud chamber" mimics the conditions in the atmosphere. This includes, for example, varying levels of
background ionization and aerosols levels (sulpheric acid in particular). Within a few months, the experiment will hopefully shed
light on the physical mechanics responsible for the apparent link between cloud cover and therefore climate in general, to cosmic
rays, and through the solar wind, also to solar activity. [Added Note (4 Oct. 2006): The experimental results indeed confirm a link]



Figure 7: The Danish National Space Center SKY reaction chamber experiment. The experiment was built with the goal of pinning down
the microphysics behind the cosmic ray/cloud cover link found through various empirical correlations. From left to right: Nigel
Marsh, Jan Veizer, Henrik Svensmark. Behind the camera: the author.

The implications of this link are far reaching. Not only does it imply that on various time scales were solar activity variations or
changes in the galactic environment prominent, if not the dominent climate drivers, it offers an explanation to at least some of the
climate variability witnessed over the past century and millennium. In particular, not all of the 20th century global warming should
be attributed to anthropogenic sources, since increased solar activity explains through this link more than half of the warming.



More information can be found at:



A general article on the cosmic ray climate link over geological time scales.

Henrik Svensmark's web site, including various publications on the cosmic-ray/cloud link.

The awaited results of the Danish SKY cloud experiment will be reported on their website within several months.

Notes and References:



* On solar activity /climate correlation:



For the first suggestion that solar variability may be affecting climate, see: William Herschel, "Observations tending to
investigate the nature of our sun, in order to find causes or symptoms of its variable emission of light and heat", Phil. Trans.
Roy. Soc. London, 91, 265 (1801). Note that Herschel suspected that it is variations in the total output which may be affecting the
climate (and with it the price of wheat).

Perhaps the most beautiful correlation between a solar activity and climate proxies can be found in the work of U. Neff et al.,
"Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago", Nature 411, 290 (2001).

Another beautiful correlation between solar activity and climate can be seen in the work of G. Bond et al., "Persistent Solar
Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene", Science, 294, 2130-2136, (2001).

* On cosmic ray and cloud cover correlation:



The paper by Henrik Svensmark, reports the correlation between cosmic ray flux variations and cloud cover changes: H. Svensmark,
"Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate", Physical Review Letters 81, 5027 (1998).

The specific correlation with low altitude cloud cover is discussed in N. Marsh and H. Svensmark, "Low Cloud Properties Influenced
by Cosmic Rays", Physical Review Letters 85, 5004 (2000).

Further analysis including the relative role of CRF variations vs. el-niño can be found in: N. Marsh and H. Svensmark, "Galactic
cosmic ray and El Niño-Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties", J.
of Geophys. Res., 108(D6), 6 (2003).



The analysis showing the geographic signature of the cosmic ray flux variations in the low altitude cloud cover variations can be
found it: I. Usoskin et al., "Latitudinal dependence of low cloud amount on cosmic ray induced ionization", Geophysical Research
Letters 31, L16109 (2004).

* On cosmic ray climate correlations on Geological time scales:



The suggestion that cosmic ray flux variations spiral arm passages could give rise to ice-age epochs is found at: N. Shaviv, "Cosmic
Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection", Physical Review Letters 89,
051102, (2002).

A highly detailed analysis, including the cosmic ray reconstruction using iron meteorites is found in: N. Shaviv, "The spiral
structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth", New Astronomy 8, 39 (2003).

The analysis of Shaviv & Veizer demonstrates the primary importance of comic ray flux variations over geological time scales, and
with it, place a limit on climate sensitivity: N. Shaviv & J. Veizer, "A Celestial driver of Phanerozoic Climate?", GSA Today 13,
No. 7, 4, 2003.




Regards

B0NZ0

"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a
degree panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT meteorology professor and member of the National Academy of Sciences

"Global warming, at least the modern nightmare version, is a myth. I am sure of it and so are a growing number of scientists. But
what is really worrying is that the world's politicians and policy-makers are not.” Dr Gareth Jones, climate researcher, Met Office
UK

[Ext User(Stan)]

"BONZ0" <bonz00@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
news:4615a7ed@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
> "Stan" <ecreipt@bigpond.net.au> wrote in message
> news:lP4Rh.9685$M.9293@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>
>> "Steve B." <pretty_good@every.thing> wrote in message
>> news:C23AF2AE.8BFC9%pretty_good@every.thing...
>> (snipped)
>>> People are gullible. Drama sells. The media would go broke reporting the
>>> truth of this matter.
>>>
>>> Steve = : ^ )
>>
>> That, and the periodic manias that affect societies. No-one knows the
>> cause for sure
>
> It's the sun. The sun has driven past ice ages and warmings. This one is
> no different.

Yes Bonzo....but I meant the cause of periodic manias...pay attention.
I doubt the sun is the cause of manias.

But hey, it could be. Hmmm. Could start another obsession :))

[Ext User(Saddam's Noose, Exxon's Neck)]

John Christy -- Associate of known TASSC science-fraud felons Patrick
J. Michaels, and Steve Milloy

http://ecosyn.us/adti/Christy/John_Christy_CEI.html

Associate of known TASSC science-fraud felons Patrick J. Michaels, and
Steve Milloy, also continuous association with felony fraud organized
crime operation APCO Associates. Court records ordered to be
publically posted online for the nation to see unequivically shows
that TASSC was conceived as a criminal fraud operation by Philip
Morris Tobacco and engaged in a years-long series of public deceptions
using compliant science-hoaxers known as "whitecoats" by the crime
masterminds and moneybags.

Christy uses the "TASSC METHOD" of inserting errors into the public
record, which when caught are reluctantly retracted, but the false
results are quoted endlessly into the future by collaborative
operators. [Background evidence passed through due process in a
Federal Court of Law establishing the criminal fraud nature of TASSC
has been ordered posted online on the internet by the judge so that
every citizen can examine this evidence of fraud for themselves. The
trial ended with $280,000,000,000 settlement by the tobacco
paymasters, so this is hardly a trial which wasn't fought tooth &
nail. This is a very partial listing of evidence. Links: 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23,
24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, ... Fred Singer
Euro-TASSC 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 287,
288, ... Heidelberg Appeal 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 311, ...
Milloy TASSC 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 361, 362, ...]

---------------
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Christy
Satellite temperature record
Christy became famous as early as 1993 [creation of TASSC] for
claiming the global temperature was actually decreasing based on the
"more accurate" satellite data. But others over the years have shown
errors in his interpretation of the data which has slowly and
consistently increased his results. This is in addition to the
improving accuracy of the short data set [4] (it begins in December
1978). In 1997 his testimony to the Committee on Environment and
Public Works pointed out that his (and Dr. Roy Spencer's) data
indicated a decrease in global temperature. Before the same committe
in 2001, he stated it was at an increase that was "a rate less than a
third that observed at the surface" at 0.045 C/decade and it showed
"remarkable consistency between independent measurements [by
radiosonde] of these upper air temperatures". In 2003 before the U.S.
House Committee on Resources he stated his data was "less than half of
the warming observed at the surface." In 2004 his published results
showed a 0.08 C/decade increase. A new error in his interpretation of
the data found in 2005 has now increased his results by 60% in only a
year to 0.13 C/decade but he still claims "all radiosonde comparisons
have been rerun and the agreement is still exceptionally good" [5] as
was claimed in 2001 when his results were 1/3 as high as now.
---------------
http://mediamatters.org/items/200605190003
Fri, May 19, 2006 10:35am EST
In new global warming special, Fox News interviews scientists with
industry ties, records of misinformation ---------------



Fox News employs Executive Director of TASSC, Steve Milloy.
No reputable and law-abiding organization will have any TASSC
fraudster on their payroll, or quote them, or give them a platform.
Christy's affiliation with organizations employing TASSC fraudsters is
beyond accidental coincidence.

---------------
http://timlambert.org/2005/07/spencer/comment-page-3/
Fri 1 Jul 2005
Significant errors found in global warming study
Posted by Tim Lambert under science

http://timlambert.org/2004/08/gwarming/
Thu 12 Aug 2004
"When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do,
Sir?"
Posted by Tim Lambert under science
---------------



FACTSHEET: The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition, TASSC
--- KEY PEOPLE: S. Fred Singer, Science Advisor; Patrick J. Michaels,
Science Advisor; Steven Milloy, Director/Founder of Advancement of
Sound Science Coalition; Frederick Seitz, Science Advisor.
FACTSHEET: The Advancement of Sound Science Center, Inc., TASSC
--- KEY PEOPLE: Steven Milloy, Publisher, JunkScience.con; Bonner
Cohen, Board of Directors.

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=2
FACTSHEET: Competitive Enterprise Institute, CEI
John Christy Contributing Writer
Steven Milloy Adjunct Analyst (TASSC)
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=903
FACTSHEET: John Christy
ORGANIZATIONS
--- Competitive Enterprise Institute John Christy, Steven Milloy
(TASSC)
--- Cato Institute KEY PEOPLE: Patrick J. Michaels, Senior Fellow,
Environmental Studies (TASSC); S. Fred Singer, Editorial Advisory
Board (TASSC); Steven Milloy, Adjunct Scholar (TASSC); John Christy,
Conference Speaker; Robert C. Balling Jr., Conference Speaker; Richard
Lindzen, Contributing Writer, Reason Magazine.
--- Independent Institute KEY PEOPLE: David R. Legates, former
Research Fellow; Frederick Seitz, Research Fellow (TASSC); S. Fred
Singer, Research Fellow (TASSC); John Christy, Panel on Global Warming

Graphic of key relationships with John Christy and Competitive
Enterprise Institute and TASSC Fraudsters and other key operatives.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/index.php?mapid=561



* --- John Christy contributed to a book by CEI-TASSC Fraudster
Patrick J. Michaels. http://snipurl.com/qtrm Google Results about 77
for "John Christy" Shattered Consensus : The True State of Global
Warming.
* Table of contents for Shattered consensus : the true state of
global warming / edited by Patrick J. Michaels.
* --- John Christy is used on the book cover and sales pitch for a
book published by Competitive Enterprise Institute, authored by Ronald
Bailey (CEI Adjunct Analyst), Global Warming and Other Eco Myths: How
the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to Death
* --- Google has 120 links to CEI.org website using John Christy's
"erroneous data", and has not corrected them or retracted them.
http://snipurl.com/qtt0 Google Results about 120 from www.cei.org for
"John Christy" "Patrick J. Michaels" | "Competitive Enterprise
Institute".
* --- John Christy is used on the book cover and sales pitch for a
book published by Cato Institute, authored by Cato-CEI-TASSC Fraudster
Patrick J. Michaels. Meltdown : The Predictable Distortion of Global
Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media.
* --- TASSC operative S. Fred Singer's SEPP website has 35
webpages with Christy's erroneous data, which has never been corrected
or retracted. http://snipurl.com/qttt Google Results 1 - 35 from www.sepp.org
for "John Christy" SEPP.
* --- TASSC operative Frederick Seitz, and longtime partner with
Singer in SEPP, was president of the George C. Marshall Institute.
http://snipurl.com/qttx Google Results 7 from www.marshall.org for
"John Christy" Marshall Institute. Webpages propagating 'erroneous"
data from John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
* --- TASSC operative Steve Milloy's Junkscience website has
Christy's Junk Science. http://snipurl.com/qtum Google Results 45 from
junkscience.com for "John Christy". Webpages propagating "erroneous"
junk science from John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
--- Heartland Institute controlled website connects John Christy
to a known TASSC Organized Crime operation, APCO Associates --
http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54 -- With TASSC
Singer, TASSC Michaels, and TASSC Seitz involvement. APCO created
TASSC as a fraud operation, and still maintains ties with the
operative "whitecoats".
* --- CEI-Registered website www.globalwarming.org has 40 webpages
with John Christy's "erroneous" data. http://snipurl.com/qtw6 Google
Results about 40 from www.globalwarming.org for GlobalWarming.org
"John Christy". Webpages propagating "erroneous" junk science from
John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
* --- CEI-Registered website http://www.globalwarming.org/sitemap.htm
sitemap has two links that go off-site to TASSC-Ally Fred Seitz's old
lair at George C. Marshall Institute: Brief Synopsis of the Global
Warming Issue, and Guide to Global Warming - Questions and Answers on
Climate Change. The http://www.globalwarming.org/about.htm pretends
that "Consumer Alert" still exists, but the link is a dead parked
page. Further down the page "National Consumer Coalition" link
http://www.consumeralert.org/ncc/index.htm leads to the same dead
parked page. They are not even trying to keep up appearances of all
their phoney front operations any more. They do have a link to their
roots as tobacco fraudsters from the Good Old Days, in The Smoker's
Club website, with Competitive Enterprise Institute clearly on the
bottom of the page. Who knows how many more fly-by-night websites they
have out there posing as citizen's groups and grassroots coalitions?

[Ext User(Saddam's Noose, Exxon's Neck)]

John Christy -- Associate of known TASSC science-fraud felons Patrick
J. Michaels, and Steve Milloy

http://ecosyn.us/adti/Christy/John_Christy_CEI.html

Associate of known TASSC science-fraud felons Patrick J. Michaels, and
Steve Milloy, also continuous association with felony fraud organized
crime operation APCO Associates. Court records ordered to be
publically posted online for the nation to see unequivically shows
that TASSC was conceived as a criminal fraud operation by Philip
Morris Tobacco and engaged in a years-long series of public deceptions
using compliant science-hoaxers known as "whitecoats" by the crime
masterminds and moneybags.

Christy uses the "TASSC METHOD" of inserting errors into the public
record, which when caught are reluctantly retracted, but the false
results are quoted endlessly into the future by collaborative
operators. [Background evidence passed through due process in a
Federal Court of Law establishing the criminal fraud nature of TASSC
has been ordered posted online on the internet by the judge so that
every citizen can examine this evidence of fraud for themselves. The
trial ended with $280,000,000,000 settlement by the tobacco
paymasters, so this is hardly a trial which wasn't fought tooth &
nail. This is a very partial listing of evidence. Links: 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23,
24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, ... Fred Singer
Euro-TASSC 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 287,
288, ... Heidelberg Appeal 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 311, ...
Milloy TASSC 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 361, 362, ...]

---------------
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Christy
Satellite temperature record
Christy became famous as early as 1993 [creation of TASSC] for
claiming the global temperature was actually decreasing based on the
"more accurate" satellite data. But others over the years have shown
errors in his interpretation of the data which has slowly and
consistently increased his results. This is in addition to the
improving accuracy of the short data set [4] (it begins in December
1978). In 1997 his testimony to the Committee on Environment and
Public Works pointed out that his (and Dr. Roy Spencer's) data
indicated a decrease in global temperature. Before the same committe
in 2001, he stated it was at an increase that was "a rate less than a
third that observed at the surface" at 0.045 C/decade and it showed
"remarkable consistency between independent measurements [by
radiosonde] of these upper air temperatures". In 2003 before the U.S.
House Committee on Resources he stated his data was "less than half of
the warming observed at the surface." In 2004 his published results
showed a 0.08 C/decade increase. A new error in his interpretation of
the data found in 2005 has now increased his results by 60% in only a
year to 0.13 C/decade but he still claims "all radiosonde comparisons
have been rerun and the agreement is still exceptionally good" [5] as
was claimed in 2001 when his results were 1/3 as high as now.
---------------
http://mediamatters.org/items/200605190003
Fri, May 19, 2006 10:35am EST
In new global warming special, Fox News interviews scientists with
industry ties, records of misinformation ---------------



Fox News employs Executive Director of TASSC, Steve Milloy.
No reputable and law-abiding organization will have any TASSC
fraudster on their payroll, or quote them, or give them a platform.
Christy's affiliation with organizations employing TASSC fraudsters is
beyond accidental coincidence.

---------------
http://timlambert.org/2005/07/spencer/comment-page-3/
Fri 1 Jul 2005
Significant errors found in global warming study
Posted by Tim Lambert under science

http://timlambert.org/2004/08/gwarming/
Thu 12 Aug 2004
"When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do,
Sir?"
Posted by Tim Lambert under science
---------------



FACTSHEET: The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition, TASSC
--- KEY PEOPLE: S. Fred Singer, Science Advisor; Patrick J. Michaels,
Science Advisor; Steven Milloy, Director/Founder of Advancement of
Sound Science Coalition; Frederick Seitz, Science Advisor.
FACTSHEET: The Advancement of Sound Science Center, Inc., TASSC
--- KEY PEOPLE: Steven Milloy, Publisher, JunkScience.con; Bonner
Cohen, Board of Directors.

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=2
FACTSHEET: Competitive Enterprise Institute, CEI
John Christy Contributing Writer
Steven Milloy Adjunct Analyst (TASSC)
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=903
FACTSHEET: John Christy
ORGANIZATIONS
--- Competitive Enterprise Institute John Christy, Steven Milloy
(TASSC)
--- Cato Institute KEY PEOPLE: Patrick J. Michaels, Senior Fellow,
Environmental Studies (TASSC); S. Fred Singer, Editorial Advisory
Board (TASSC); Steven Milloy, Adjunct Scholar (TASSC); John Christy,
Conference Speaker; Robert C. Balling Jr., Conference Speaker; Richard
Lindzen, Contributing Writer, Reason Magazine.
--- Independent Institute KEY PEOPLE: David R. Legates, former
Research Fellow; Frederick Seitz, Research Fellow (TASSC); S. Fred
Singer, Research Fellow (TASSC); John Christy, Panel on Global Warming

Graphic of key relationships with John Christy and Competitive
Enterprise Institute and TASSC Fraudsters and other key operatives.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/index.php?mapid=561



* --- John Christy contributed to a book by CEI-TASSC Fraudster
Patrick J. Michaels. http://snipurl.com/qtrm Google Results about 77
for "John Christy" Shattered Consensus : The True State of Global
Warming.
* Table of contents for Shattered consensus : the true state of
global warming / edited by Patrick J. Michaels.
* --- John Christy is used on the book cover and sales pitch for a
book published by Competitive Enterprise Institute, authored by Ronald
Bailey (CEI Adjunct Analyst), Global Warming and Other Eco Myths: How
the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to Death
* --- Google has 120 links to CEI.org website using John Christy's
"erroneous data", and has not corrected them or retracted them.
http://snipurl.com/qtt0 Google Results about 120 from www.cei.org for
"John Christy" "Patrick J. Michaels" | "Competitive Enterprise
Institute".
* --- John Christy is used on the book cover and sales pitch for a
book published by Cato Institute, authored by Cato-CEI-TASSC Fraudster
Patrick J. Michaels. Meltdown : The Predictable Distortion of Global
Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media.
* --- TASSC operative S. Fred Singer's SEPP website has 35
webpages with Christy's erroneous data, which has never been corrected
or retracted. http://snipurl.com/qttt Google Results 1 - 35 from www.sepp.org
for "John Christy" SEPP.
* --- TASSC operative Frederick Seitz, and longtime partner with
Singer in SEPP, was president of the George C. Marshall Institute.
http://snipurl.com/qttx Google Results 7 from www.marshall.org for
"John Christy" Marshall Institute. Webpages propagating 'erroneous"
data from John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
* --- TASSC operative Steve Milloy's Junkscience website has
Christy's Junk Science. http://snipurl.com/qtum Google Results 45 from
junkscience.com for "John Christy". Webpages propagating "erroneous"
junk science from John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
--- Heartland Institute controlled website connects John Christy
to a known TASSC Organized Crime operation, APCO Associates --
http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54 -- With TASSC
Singer, TASSC Michaels, and TASSC Seitz involvement. APCO created
TASSC as a fraud operation, and still maintains ties with the
operative "whitecoats".
* --- CEI-Registered website www.globalwarming.org has 40 webpages
with John Christy's "erroneous" data. http://snipurl.com/qtw6 Google
Results about 40 from www.globalwarming.org for GlobalWarming.org
"John Christy". Webpages propagating "erroneous" junk science from
John Christy have never been corrected or retracted.
* --- CEI-Registered website http://www.globalwarming.org/sitemap.htm
sitemap has two links that go off-site to TASSC-Ally Fred Seitz's old
lair at George C. Marshall Institute: Brief Synopsis of the Global
Warming Issue, and Guide to Global Warming - Questions and Answers on
Climate Change. The http://www.globalwarming.org/about.htm pretends
that "Consumer Alert" still exists, but the link is a dead parked
page. Further down the page "National Consumer Coalition" link
http://www.consumeralert.org/ncc/index.htm leads to the same dead
parked page. They are not even trying to keep up appearances of all
their phoney front operations any more. They do have a link to their
roots as tobacco fraudsters from the Good Old Days, in The Smoker's
Club website, with Competitive Enterprise Institute clearly on the
bottom of the page. Who knows how many more fly-by-night websites they
have out there posing as citizen's groups and grassroots coalitions?