Ext User(Bonzo)
20-11-2007, 12:13 PM
The trees were kidding: world was warmer just a few centuries ago
Andrew Bolt
Tuesday, November 20, 2007 at 09:37am
The IPCC used it in its third assessment report. Al Gore used it in his
movie. In fact, no graphic has had such a huge effect as the infamous
hockeystick produced by Michael Mann, who used tree ring data to
allegedly show that the last century's warming was unprecedented, and
the globe had never in 2000 years been this hot:
Small problem. Mann's manipulation of the statistics has since been
discredited, and the graph dropped out of the IPCC's fourth report. But
the damage has been done. Millions of people now firmly believe the
world hasn't been this hot in recorded history, not even during the
Medieval Warm Period.
Now a new study says Mann didn't just get the maths wrong, but could
have been using tainted data as well.
Ecological modeller Dr Craig Loehle has checked other proxy data, rather
than the tree rings he says are unreliable, and comes up with a very
different graphic indeed:
Says Loehle:
There are reasons to believe that tree ring data may not properly
capture long-term climate changes. In this study, eighteen
2000-year-long series were obtained that were not based on tree ring
data. Data in each series were smoothed with a 30-year running mean. All
data were then converted to anomalies by subtracting the mean of each
series from that series. The overall mean series was then computed by
simple averaging. The mean time series shows quite coherent structure.
The mean series shows the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age
(LIA) quite clearly, with the MWP being approximately 0.3°C warmer than
20th century values at these eighteen sites.
To sum up. This warming is not unusual. The planet was warmer less than
1000 years ago. Oh, and see the fall in temperatures since 1998's high,
which so panicked so many people.
--
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_trees_were_kidding_the_world_was_warmer_just_a _few_centuries_ago/
Get The TRUE Facts At
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html
Excellent Links At
http://www.warwickhughes.com/
Regards
Bonzo
"If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
CO2
contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
floor"
D'Aleo
"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
National Academy of Sciences
"What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes"
Dr. Richard Lindzen
[most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen
Andrew Bolt
Tuesday, November 20, 2007 at 09:37am
The IPCC used it in its third assessment report. Al Gore used it in his
movie. In fact, no graphic has had such a huge effect as the infamous
hockeystick produced by Michael Mann, who used tree ring data to
allegedly show that the last century's warming was unprecedented, and
the globe had never in 2000 years been this hot:
Small problem. Mann's manipulation of the statistics has since been
discredited, and the graph dropped out of the IPCC's fourth report. But
the damage has been done. Millions of people now firmly believe the
world hasn't been this hot in recorded history, not even during the
Medieval Warm Period.
Now a new study says Mann didn't just get the maths wrong, but could
have been using tainted data as well.
Ecological modeller Dr Craig Loehle has checked other proxy data, rather
than the tree rings he says are unreliable, and comes up with a very
different graphic indeed:
Says Loehle:
There are reasons to believe that tree ring data may not properly
capture long-term climate changes. In this study, eighteen
2000-year-long series were obtained that were not based on tree ring
data. Data in each series were smoothed with a 30-year running mean. All
data were then converted to anomalies by subtracting the mean of each
series from that series. The overall mean series was then computed by
simple averaging. The mean time series shows quite coherent structure.
The mean series shows the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age
(LIA) quite clearly, with the MWP being approximately 0.3°C warmer than
20th century values at these eighteen sites.
To sum up. This warming is not unusual. The planet was warmer less than
1000 years ago. Oh, and see the fall in temperatures since 1998's high,
which so panicked so many people.
--
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_trees_were_kidding_the_world_was_warmer_just_a _few_centuries_ago/
Get The TRUE Facts At
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html
Excellent Links At
http://www.warwickhughes.com/
Regards
Bonzo
"If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
CO2
contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
floor"
D'Aleo
"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
National Academy of Sciences
"What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes"
Dr. Richard Lindzen
[most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen