What to invest in at the moment?

[Ext User(Sherpa)]

With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
wondering what would make a good investment?

Interest rates seem to keep going up and housing affordability doesn't
seem to be too good?

The share market is extremely volatile at the moment and after 5 years
of good growth would it make a good investment now?

[Ext User(B J Foster)]

Travis Morien wrote:
> On Jan 9, 5:47 pm, Sherpa <a...@a.com> wrote:
>> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
>> wondering what would make a good investment?

Reduce debt

>>
>> Interest rates seem to keep going up and housing affordability doesn't
>> seem to be too good?
>>
>> The share market is extremely volatile at the moment and after 5 years
>> of good growth would it make a good investment now?
>
> Define "good".
>
> If you value capital security then cash is good.
>
> If you want higher returns then shares are the way to go, but there is
> downside risk.
>
> Don't delude yourself into thinking there will come a time in the
> future when everything will seem just right and it will once again be
> safe to buy. Uncertainty is baked right in to the market.

Baked?


>
> Travis
> www.travismorien.com

[Ext User(Bill Hobba)]

"Sherpa" <a@a.com> wrote in message
news:47848a31$0$32673$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.a u...
> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
> wondering what would make a good investment?

I recommend the Donnelly zoning system. You can get the current zone from
the modestly priced Donnelly Investment Times. They also have a number of
stock recommendations. Buy when the current price is below the fair value
range and get say 20 different shares from various sectors. Or simply
invest in an LIC like Agro investments.

>
> Interest rates seem to keep going up and housing affordability doesn't
> seem to be too good?
>
> The share market is extremely volatile at the moment and after 5 years of
> good growth would it make a good investment now?

Shares will always be volatile - greater risk - greater potential reward.

Thanks
Bill

[Ext User(B0NZ0)]

"Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
news:oljhj.1417$421.122@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
> "B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
> news:478560f4$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
>> news:Hlchj.1243$421.1190@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>> "Sherpa" <a@a.com> wrote in message
>>> news:47848a31$0$32673$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.a u...
>>>> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
>>>> wondering what would make a good investment?
>>> I recommend the Donnelly zoning system. You can get the current
>>> zone from the modestly priced Donnelly Investment Times. They also
>>> have a number of stock recommendations. Buy when the current price
>>> is below the fair value range and get say 20 different shares from
>>> various sectors. Or simply invest in an LIC like Agro investments.
>> Or maybe in Centro.
>> It's all well and good advising one to use this "system" but what are
>> the results for you?
> I am suffering from the turn in the market the same as everyone. But
> because I use the zoning system I only have 50% invested.

And I'm excitedly mulling over which stocks to buy when a really decent
plunge occurs!
Meanwhile I'm earning 6.25% interest on my CASH!

>> What stocks do you currently have?
> That really is irelevant.

Huh?
If you had gold and/or oil stocks you'd be laughing!
Not so happy with bank stocks though!

>> I would currently be too afraid to have any but gold and oil stocks.
> Then contrarian investing is not for you.
> Bill

I beg to differ.
I'm a PATIENT contrarian!
I don't think we've yet hit a decent bottom.

>>
>> Get The TRUE Facts At
>> http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html
>>
>> Excellent Links At
>> http://www.warwickhughes.com/
>>
>> Regards
>> Bonzo
>>
>> "If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
>> CO2
>> contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
>> floor"
>> D'Aleo
>>
>>
>> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
>> anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
>> panic us"
>> Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
>> National Academy of Sciences
>>
>>
>> "What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
>> only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it
>> changes" Dr. Richard Lindzen
>>
>>
>> [most of the current alarm over climate change is based on]
>> "inherently untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that
>> cannot accurately forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard
>> Lindzen
>
>

[Ext User(B0NZ0)]

"Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
news:oIThj.2135$421.1904@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>
> "B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
> news:4786c3e0$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
>> news:oljhj.1417$421.122@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>> "B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
>>> news:478560f4$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>>>> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
>>>> news:Hlchj.1243$421.1190@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>>>> "Sherpa" <a@a.com> wrote in message
>>>>> news:47848a31$0$32673$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.a u...
>>>>>> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
>>>>>> wondering what would make a good investment?
>>>>> I recommend the Donnelly zoning system. You can get the current
>>>>> zone from the modestly priced Donnelly Investment Times. They
>>>>> also have a number of stock recommendations. Buy when the current
>>>>> price is below the fair value range and get say 20 different
>>>>> shares from various sectors. Or simply invest in an LIC like Agro
>>>>> investments.
>>>> Or maybe in Centro.
>>>> It's all well and good advising one to use this "system" but what
>>>> are the results for you?
>>> I am suffering from the turn in the market the same as everyone. But
>>> because I use the zoning system I only have 50% invested.
>>
>> And I'm excitedly mulling over which stocks to buy when a really
>> decent plunge occurs!
>> Meanwhile I'm earning 6.25% interest on my CASH!
>>
>>>> What stocks do you currently have?
>>> That really is irelevant.
>>
>> Huh?
>> If you had gold and/or oil stocks you'd be laughing!
>> Not so happy with bank stocks though!
>
> No one in his right mind puts all his eggs in one basket. Providing
> you have a reasonable spread of shares then if one sector is weak and
> another strong you will be ok. I will tell you some of my shares are
> performing dreadfully and some are going gung ho - they tend to
> balance out.
>>>> I would currently be too afraid to have any but gold and oil
>>>> stocks.
>>> Then contrarian investing is not for you.
>>> Bill
>> I beg to differ.
>> I'm a PATIENT contrarian!
>> I don't think we've yet hit a decent bottom.
> No one has ever been able to reliablely predict such things. And I do
> mean NO ONE.
> Bill


No need to predict, just wait for the inevitable bear market (bull
markets NEVER last forever), let it the bear market run until you see
what is a bottom or close to it (viz: capitulation), then pile in with
maybe 50% invested initially, then pyramid up as the new bull market
asserts itself.
A very low risk strategy.
Even if the new bull market is slow to take off, you can still be
confidant you've bought at close to the bottom.
Doesn't take much in the way of brains either.
BTW I don't think much of a system which leaves you 50% invested at the
commencement of a bear market!
Maybe you should become a disciple of Colin Nicholson rather than
Donnelly.


Get The TRUE Facts At
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html

Excellent Links At
http://www.warwickhughes.com/

Regards
Bonzo

"If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
CO2
contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
floor"
D'Aleo


"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
National Academy of Sciences


"What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes"
Dr. Richard Lindzen


[most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen

[Ext User(Bill Hobba)]

"B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
news:47885608$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>
> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
> news:oIThj.2135$421.1904@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>
>> "B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
>> news:4786c3e0$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>>> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
>>> news:oljhj.1417$421.122@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>>> "B0NZ0" <boozoo@optusnt.com.au> wrote in message
>>>> news:478560f4$1@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>>>>> "Bill Hobba" <rubbish@junk.com> wrote in message
>>>>> news:Hlchj.1243$421.1190@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
>>>>>> "Sherpa" <a@a.com> wrote in message
>>>>>> news:47848a31$0$32673$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.a u...
>>>>>>> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
>>>>>>> wondering what would make a good investment?
>>>>>> I recommend the Donnelly zoning system. You can get the current zone
>>>>>> from the modestly priced Donnelly Investment Times. They also have a
>>>>>> number of stock recommendations. Buy when the current price is below
>>>>>> the fair value range and get say 20 different shares from various
>>>>>> sectors. Or simply invest in an LIC like Agro investments.
>>>>> Or maybe in Centro.
>>>>> It's all well and good advising one to use this "system" but what are
>>>>> the results for you?
>>>> I am suffering from the turn in the market the same as everyone. But
>>>> because I use the zoning system I only have 50% invested.
>>>
>>> And I'm excitedly mulling over which stocks to buy when a really decent
>>> plunge occurs!
>>> Meanwhile I'm earning 6.25% interest on my CASH!
>>>
>>>>> What stocks do you currently have?
>>>> That really is irelevant.
>>>
>>> Huh?
>>> If you had gold and/or oil stocks you'd be laughing!
>>> Not so happy with bank stocks though!
>>
>> No one in his right mind puts all his eggs in one basket. Providing you
>> have a reasonable spread of shares then if one sector is weak and another
>> strong you will be ok. I will tell you some of my shares are performing
>> dreadfully and some are going gung ho - they tend to balance out.
>>>>> I would currently be too afraid to have any but gold and oil stocks.
>>>> Then contrarian investing is not for you.
>>>> Bill
>>> I beg to differ.
>>> I'm a PATIENT contrarian!
>>> I don't think we've yet hit a decent bottom.
>> No one has ever been able to reliablely predict such things. And I do
>> mean NO ONE.
>> Bill
>
>
> No need to predict, just wait for the inevitable bear market (bull markets
> NEVER last forever), let it the bear market run until you see what is a
> bottom or close to it (viz: capitulation),

NO ONE can do that. The best you can do is something like Donnelly's zoning
system. And this is backed up by the research Donnelly did in devising it.

Bill

> then pile in with maybe 50% invested initially, then pyramid up as the new
> bull market asserts itself.
> A very low risk strategy.
> Even if the new bull market is slow to take off, you can still be
> confidant you've bought at close to the bottom.
> Doesn't take much in the way of brains either.
> BTW I don't think much of a system which leaves you 50% invested at the
> commencement of a bear market!
> Maybe you should become a disciple of Colin Nicholson rather than
> Donnelly.
>
>
> Get The TRUE Facts At
> http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html
>
> Excellent Links At
> http://www.warwickhughes.com/
>
> Regards
> Bonzo
>
> "If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic CO2
> contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first floor"
> D'Aleo
>
>
> "...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for anything
> except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree panic us"
> Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
> National Academy of Sciences
>
>
> "What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the only
> thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes" Dr.
> Richard Lindzen
>
>
> [most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
> untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
> forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen

[Ext User(tim)]

On Sun, 13 Jan 2008 12:17:02 +1100, B0NZ0 wrote:

> Are you saying that no one can see a bear market after it's been running
> for a few months or so?
> Then I must be an absolute genius because I was well and truly aware of
> the last bear market which ended in March 2003.
> Trouble was I couldn't "pile in" at the time because I was heavily
> invested elsewhere, otherwise I would have.
> It's by far the safest time to invest.
> I distinctly remember thinking at the time, inter alia, "Gee, Macquarie
> Bank at $18.00, what a bargain" and "Gee, News Corp at $8.50, what a
> bargain".
> I distinctly remember the explosive change in sentiment which occurred
> on the 14th of March 2003 after bottoming out at 2666.3 the day before.
> It's not that hard ... which makes me wonder whether everyone else but
> moi is blind!
> I'm planning on not missing the tail end of the new bear market!
>

Come back and tell us all about it when you've actually made piles of money
from this brilliant strategy.

If you really can time markets you *are* exceptional because hardly anyone
else can.

The end of a bear market is obvious in retrospect, but rarely so at the
time. Our memories play tricks with us.

We remember thinking we should have bought HVN at 50c and forget the other
side - thinking TIM was a great deal at $4.50. Anyone can tell you *now*
that things had gone too far in late 1999. In 2003 everyone was talking
about deflation.

Unless you have the trades to prove it, I'm saying it's 20:20 hindsight.

Tim Josling

[Ext User(B0NZ0)]

"tim" <TimJ@internet.com> wrote in message
news:13oj6qbjda95449@corp.supernews.com...
> On Sun, 13 Jan 2008 12:17:02 +1100, B0NZ0 wrote:
>
>> Are you saying that no one can see a bear market after it's been
>> running
>> for a few months or so?
>> Then I must be an absolute genius because I was well and truly aware
>> of
>> the last bear market which ended in March 2003.
>> Trouble was I couldn't "pile in" at the time because I was heavily
>> invested elsewhere, otherwise I would have.
>> It's by far the safest time to invest.
>> I distinctly remember thinking at the time, inter alia, "Gee,
>> Macquarie
>> Bank at $18.00, what a bargain" and "Gee, News Corp at $8.50, what a
>> bargain".
>> I distinctly remember the explosive change in sentiment which
>> occurred
>> on the 14th of March 2003 after bottoming out at 2666.3 the day
>> before.
>> It's not that hard ... which makes me wonder whether everyone else
>> but
>> moi is blind!
>> I'm planning on not missing the tail end of the new bear market!
>>
>
> Come back and tell us all about it when you've actually made piles of
> money
> from this brilliant strategy.
>
> If you really can time markets you *are* exceptional because hardly
> anyone
> else can.
>
> The end of a bear market is obvious in retrospect, but rarely so at
> the
> time. Our memories play tricks with us.
>

Even if you bought in the middle of a bear market you would still be
buying much cheaper than during the previous bull.
It's not that hard!
You don't have to time the exact end, although there was plenty of time
to pile in once it was obvious the bear was over in March 2003.
If you can't do that you must be really, really dense or are just
addicted to following the crowd.


Get The TRUE Facts At
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html

Excellent Links At
http://www.warwickhughes.com/

Regards
Bonzo

"If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
CO2
contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
floor"
D'Aleo


"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
National Academy of Sciences


“What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes”
Dr. Richard Lindzen


[most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen

[Ext User(tim)]

On Mon, 14 Jan 2008 10:31:16 +1100, B0NZ0 wrote:

> You don't have to time the exact end, although there was plenty of time
> to pile in once it was obvious the bear was over in March 2003.
> If you can't do that you must be really, really dense or are just
> addicted to following the crowd.
>

Feel free to post your trading records at the appropriate time to show us
how you did it.

Tim Josling

[Ext User(B0NZ0)]

"tim" <TimJ@internet.com> wrote in message
news:13olsb5dt0sq4f8@corp.supernews.com...
> On Mon, 14 Jan 2008 10:31:16 +1100, B0NZ0 wrote:
>
>> You don't have to time the exact end, although there was plenty of
>> time
>> to pile in once it was obvious the bear was over in March 2003.
>> If you can't do that you must be really, really dense or are just
>> addicted to following the crowd.
> Feel free to post your trading records at the appropriate time to show
> us
> how you did it.
> Tim Josling

Patience, my son, it all comes to he who waits.
--


Get The TRUE Facts At
http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/index.html

Excellent Links At
http://www.warwickhughes.com/

Regards
Bonzo

"If the atmosphere was a 100 story building, our annual anthropogenic
CO2
contribution today would be equivalent to the linoleum on the first
floor"
D'Aleo


"...and I think future generations are not going to blame us for
anything except for being silly, for letting a few tenths of a degree
panic us"
Dr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology MIT and Member of the
National Academy of Sciences


“What most commentators-and many scientists-seem to miss is that the
only thing we can say with certainly about climate is that it changes”
Dr. Richard Lindzen


[most of the current alarm over climate change is based on] "inherently
untrustworthy climate models, similar to those that cannot accurately
forecast the weather a week from now." Dr. Richard Lindzen

[Ext User(Sherpa)]

Travis Morien wrote:
> On Jan 9, 5:47 pm, Sherpa <a...@a.com> wrote:
>> With all the financial doom and gloom around at the moment, I was
>> wondering what would make a good investment?
>>
>> Interest rates seem to keep going up and housing affordability doesn't
>> seem to be too good?
>>
>> The share market is extremely volatile at the moment and after 5 years
>> of good growth would it make a good investment now?
>
> Define "good".
>
> If you value capital security then cash is good.
>
> If you want higher returns then shares are the way to go, but there is
> downside risk.
>
> Don't delude yourself into thinking there will come a time in the
> future when everything will seem just right and it will once again be
> safe to buy. Uncertainty is baked right in to the market.
>
I guess my point here was that there is a lot of doom and gloom, and
that was obviously brought out further today. I personally don't think
that now, or when I made the post, is a good time to buy. I don't think
I'm deluding myself about not buying at the moment, just using some
common sense to realise that there is an exceedingly large amount of
negativity around at the moment and this is not going to change for a
while yet I think.