Cost of "Piracy" - lets do the maths

[John]

According to the article at:

http://afr.com/articles/2003/11/03/1067708140473.html

And please notice I'm using the Foxtel/Austar figures quoted:

There are over 800,000 satellite subscribers in Austrlia. They estimate
that 10 to 15% of services are pirate. That would correllate with the
figures quoted in the article re Austar having a jump in "basic"
subscribers from 10 to 20% of customers in the last 18 months.
Assumably that 10% jump are "tier thieves". So we'll go with a
conservative figure of 10% piracy for the calculations (personally I
think 20% would be a more accurate figure but that would only make what
fox/aus are doing now look even more stupid).

They also say in the article that they hope that up to 25% of the
current tier thieves will become legitimate subscribers. Of course that
means that 75% wont!!! and will cancel the basic subscription. OK so
the numbers look like this:

10% of 800,000 = 80,000
80,000 x $50 per month = $4,000,000 per month in revenue.
25% of $80,000 = 20,000 who change from a $50 basic sub to say an $80
per month "enhanced" sub = $1,600,000

$4,000,000 - $1,600,000 = $2.4 million per month in lost turnover.

Over a year that equates to $28.8 million PLUS the $10 million to
rollout the new cards and encryption. Basically $40 million down the
tube this year and $30 million a year thereafter. Of course, if the
level of piracy is 20% it becomes more like $60 million a year. But it
will stop Joe Blow down the road watching ANOTHER bloody boring WW2
History Channel show...

The way I see it is that Fox/Aus only hope of recovering that lost
income is for someone to crack the new encryption!!

I've just re-read what I've written and it looks like something out of a
Monty Python sketch...

[Wayne349]

And not to mention the cost of the legit subscribers who unsubscribe and
foxtel (or contractors ) have to
come and pick up all the old Decoders.



"John" <johndec@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.1a42c85a614af18a989680@news...
> According to the article at:
>
> http://afr.com/articles/2003/11/03/1067708140473.html
>
> And please notice I'm using the Foxtel/Austar figures quoted:
>
> There are over 800,000 satellite subscribers in Austrlia. They estimate
> that 10 to 15% of services are pirate. That would correllate with the
> figures quoted in the article re Austar having a jump in "basic"
> subscribers from 10 to 20% of customers in the last 18 months.
> Assumably that 10% jump are "tier thieves". So we'll go with a
> conservative figure of 10% piracy for the calculations (personally I
> think 20% would be a more accurate figure but that would only make what
> fox/aus are doing now look even more stupid).
>
> They also say in the article that they hope that up to 25% of the
> current tier thieves will become legitimate subscribers. Of course that
> means that 75% wont!!! and will cancel the basic subscription. OK so
> the numbers look like this:
>
> 10% of 800,000 = 80,000
> 80,000 x $50 per month = $4,000,000 per month in revenue.
> 25% of $80,000 = 20,000 who change from a $50 basic sub to say an $80
> per month "enhanced" sub = $1,600,000
>
> $4,000,000 - $1,600,000 = $2.4 million per month in lost turnover.
>
> Over a year that equates to $28.8 million PLUS the $10 million to
> rollout the new cards and encryption. Basically $40 million down the
> tube this year and $30 million a year thereafter. Of course, if the
> level of piracy is 20% it becomes more like $60 million a year. But it
> will stop Joe Blow down the road watching ANOTHER bloody boring WW2
> History Channel show...
>
> The way I see it is that Fox/Aus only hope of recovering that lost
> income is for someone to crack the new encryption!!
>
> I've just re-read what I've written and it looks like something out of a
> Monty Python sketch...
>

[thetron]

> will stop Joe Blow down the road watching ANOTHER bloody boring WW2
> History Channel show...
I like them thanks you very much

Their very cool and i can relate to come parts in my WW I&II FPS video
games. Seeing how accure the games are

[John]

In article <3fd82b83$0$905$61c65585@uq-127creek-reader-
02.brisbane.pipenetworks.com.au>, getursel@adomain.com says...
>
> > will stop Joe Blow down the road watching ANOTHER bloody boring WW2
> > History Channel show...
> I like them thanks you very much
>
> Their very cool and i can relate to come parts in my WW I&II FPS video
> games. Seeing how accure the games are
>
>
>
HAHA!! Good point. I was only using that as the first example that
sprang to mind, actually I never seem to get sick of them myself..

I should have pointed out in my original post that I am a cable
subscriber, so the whole satellite piracy thing is really only of
academic interest to me. However if the bastards would let me connect
to sat in a cable area, it might be a different story!!!

But as a cable customer, one thing that does shit me is that if they are
successful in wiping out piracy, it's likely that prices will rise
rather than fall to cover the lost income. Have all those "get rid of
the pirates, they're robbing me" posters in earlier threads thought of
that?

[theguy126]

yeah piracy, I guess they (Foxtel) want to get tough now.

[Noddy]

"John" <johndec@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.1a42c85a614af18a989680@news...
> According to the article at:
>
> http://afr.com/articles/2003/11/03/1067708140473.html
>
> And please notice I'm using the Foxtel/Austar figures quoted:
>
> There are over 800,000 satellite subscribers in Austrlia. They estimate
> that 10 to 15% of services are pirate.

<snip>

How the hell would they know?

Regards,
Noddy.

[Me]

They only have to 'act tough' now because of the years of substandard
service and shit customer service.



"theguy126" <theguy126.y9olr@no-mx.forums.eyo.com.au> wrote in message
news:theguy126.y9olr@no-mx.forums.eyo.com.au...
>
> yeah piracy, I guess they (Foxtel) want to get tough now.
>
>
> --
> theguy126
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> theguy126's Profile:
http://forums.eyo.com.au/member.php?action=getinfo&userid=8298
> View this thread: http://forums.eyo.com.au/showthread.php?threadid=32557
>

[johnboy2003]

If You go around and see the people with Sats on roof you will find 80%
turned of .(or have churned )
Austars proof to there money lenders is the amount of sats on roof.
Another HIH i think

[Me - The Real one!]

"johnboy2003" <johnboy2003.yansk@no-mx.forums.eyo.com.au> wrote in message
news:johnboy2003.yansk@no-mx.forums.eyo.com.au...
>
> If You go around and see the people with Sats on roof you will find 80%

I'd hate to have a sat on my roof. I don't think my insurance covers space
debris.

> turned of .(or have churned )
> Austars proof to there money lenders is the amount of sats on roof.
> Another HIH i think
>
>
> --
> johnboy2003
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> johnboy2003's Profile:
http://forums.eyo.com.au/member.php?action=getinfo&userid=6310
> View this thread: http://forums.eyo.com.au/showthread.php?threadid=32557
>

[Brian]

On Thu, 11 Dec 2003 20:03:15 +1100, John <johndec@hotmail.com> wrote:

>In article <3fd82b83$0$905$61c65585@uq-127creek-reader-
>02.brisbane.pipenetworks.com.au>, getursel@adomain.com says...
>>

>But as a cable customer, one thing that does shit me is that if they are
>successful in wiping out piracy, it's likely that prices will rise
>rather than fall to cover the lost income. Have all those "get rid of
>the pirates, they're robbing me" posters in earlier threads thought of
>that?

Austar have already put their prices up.

Before I moved to tasmania, I looked at their website, $37 a
month...... OK I thought... not too bad.

I get here, and they have gone to satellite for new subscribers and
are converting their existing slowly. Latest adverts advertise *FROM*
as little as 13.34 a month. $53 a month... they can go jump.